Two months to go before the presidential election and the latest polling...hasn't changed all that much from 2, 3 or 6 months ago. President Obama holds a small but consistent lead in the national polls and continues to lead in enough states to give him the electoral majority he needs to be reelected in November. Are there rough seas ahead for him? You bet, and Mitt Romney might have discovered a winning edge with his "Are you better off now?" campaign line. We'll be able to glean more from the Democratic convention bounce, should there be one, and the possible effects of Friday's jobs numbers, but we'll need to wait until Monday to see if the race has truly turned one way or the other.
For Mitt, there was no discernible bounce from the GOP convention, but my sense is that many Americans who are undecided might be waiting until the debates to make up their minds. Conventions don't have the same pull as they did in the past, and both parties have bungled their messages with inconvenient side issues (Clint Eastwood, God). It makes me wonder who's actually in charge.
So now, the numbers.
The latest RealClearPolitics average of the race shows a tie, as some of the late summer polls with Obama up +7 and +9 dropped off the chart, and replaced with the latest trends which show both candidates alternating small leads. The Gallup 7-day average has Obama +1, while Rasmussen's 3 day poll has Romney at +3. Neither of these tracking polls had Mitt at more than +4 after the Republican convention, so whatever bounce he got was small and short-lived.
As for the battleground states, Romney leads in North Carolina and Missouri, but is behind in every other contested state on the RCP map. though Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada still qualify as toss-ups. Other pollsters are a bit more liberal with their results, with the Vote-Master giving Obama a 332-206 edge, Election Projection showing Obama at 285-253, and Nate Silver at the New York Times with Obama up 311-227. With news today that conservative groups have pulled their ads from Michigan, another upper Midwestern state remains safe for the president. Romney is still close in Wisconsin, and positive polling there would be great news for his campaign.
The Congressional ballot moved from Republicans +3 last month to a tie today, and the Democrats had a slight edge for a few weeks, which is probably statistical noise, so we'll need to see more individual races to spot a trend. Things seem to have calmed down in the Missouri Senate race after Todd Akin's unfortunate comments. He's back to a statistical tie with Claire McCaskill, but clearly not out of the woods yet.
What seems to be clear is that Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate did not, in fact, provide him with a clear bump in the polls. It's narrowed the gap in some polls, but it wasn't a game-changing decision. Likewise, there isn't much that President Obama can do in his convention speech to fundamentally change people's perceptions of him. All he can hope for is that voters give him another chance to make the economy better given that he inherited a terrific mess in 2009. If there's no break either way between now and the end of September, then the debates will probably decide the election, absent a surprise or large unforeseen event between now and then.
The last wildcard is the effect of PAC spending on national, state and local races. The Republicans are raising far more money than Democrats, but I'm wondering about the effects of too much advertising in the contested states. And does it really matter if the GOP runs 10 ads to every 6 the Democrats run? I guess we'll see.
Remember, if you haven't registered to vote, or know someone who hasn't, please make sure you file an application before your state's deadline.
Register your comments at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Are You Better Off? If Not, Blame the GOP
Do Republicans really want to ask this question? Does the party whose policies are most responsible for blowing up the United States economy really want to ask if we're better off now than four years ago, when the country faced an imminent destruction of its banking system and a possible depression? Do the GOP governors who implemented policies that devastated the public sector and led to hundreds of thousands of teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other essential government services workers being laid off or forced to take pay cuts truly want the country to debate their actions?
And most important, does the party of the wealthy really want to ask a question that so panders to people's craven self-interests, that it firmly establishes the GOP as the vanguard of selfishness and regression?
Why, yes it does, thank you very much. And that's why this is such a dangerous moment in the campaign.
The Republicans think they actually have a winning issue here, but they don't. Today, we have more jobs than we did four years ago. The stock market is higher, the housing market is beginning to recover and incomes are on the rise (though they are rising faster for Romney's class than they are for your average middle class worker). It is true that the Obama team underestimated just how much damage the Bush Administration did to the economy and they should have asked for more direct stimulus and fewer tax cuts in the 2009 bill, but Republican obstruction and the debt-defying game of Russian Roulette they played that resulted in the country's credit rating downgrade were prime contributors to the slow growth we find ourselves with today.
But this all pales in comparison to the devastation of the good public sector jobs that formed the backbone of many middle class communities. In New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin and other states, GOP governors weakened or destroyed collective bargaining rights and imposed harsh wage controls, leading to layoffs and downsizing of essential workers. And as for craven self-interest, no, I am not better off because of it. Is it any wonder that New Jersey has an unemployment rate of 9.8%?
Democrats and the Obama campaign must forcefully fight back against this ridiculous misrepresentation of reality. That they initially gave scattered answers is mystifying, but a unified response during the convention can go a long way towards laying this lie to rest.
Are you better off? Speak your mind at:
www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
And most important, does the party of the wealthy really want to ask a question that so panders to people's craven self-interests, that it firmly establishes the GOP as the vanguard of selfishness and regression?
Why, yes it does, thank you very much. And that's why this is such a dangerous moment in the campaign.
The Republicans think they actually have a winning issue here, but they don't. Today, we have more jobs than we did four years ago. The stock market is higher, the housing market is beginning to recover and incomes are on the rise (though they are rising faster for Romney's class than they are for your average middle class worker). It is true that the Obama team underestimated just how much damage the Bush Administration did to the economy and they should have asked for more direct stimulus and fewer tax cuts in the 2009 bill, but Republican obstruction and the debt-defying game of Russian Roulette they played that resulted in the country's credit rating downgrade were prime contributors to the slow growth we find ourselves with today.
But this all pales in comparison to the devastation of the good public sector jobs that formed the backbone of many middle class communities. In New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin and other states, GOP governors weakened or destroyed collective bargaining rights and imposed harsh wage controls, leading to layoffs and downsizing of essential workers. And as for craven self-interest, no, I am not better off because of it. Is it any wonder that New Jersey has an unemployment rate of 9.8%?
Democrats and the Obama campaign must forcefully fight back against this ridiculous misrepresentation of reality. That they initially gave scattered answers is mystifying, but a unified response during the convention can go a long way towards laying this lie to rest.
Are you better off? Speak your mind at:
www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Monday, September 3, 2012
New Jersey's Teachers: The Envy of the Nation
And I ain't makin' that up, neither.
In honor of back-to-school time here in the Garden State (I know that schools in other states might have started in August), it's time for us to recognize the unparalleled job that New Jersey's public school teachers do year in and year out.
We consistently rank in the top 3 nationwide in student outcomes on most available measures; SAT, AP and NAEP scores, college acceptances (too many graduates go out-of-state, though), writing achievement and overall performance. We have some significant gaps between how suburban students perform and how their urban counterparts score, and that is a sore point both economically and politically.
But even with that huge caveat, we are the envy of other states. How do I know? Because this past July I attended the National Education Association convention in Washington, D.C., and many of my colleagues around the country told me so.
I spoke with delegates from Tennessee, and they told me that their statewide tests dictated their curriculum to the point that they had to jettison most enrichment material from their classrooms to make sure they covered the test material. They also said that for the two months before the tests, they did nothing but review and drill.
And just in case you think this is professional bias, I sat next to a family from Tennessee on the train down to DC, and their daughter, a high school senior from a town near Nashville, told me how ridiculous (her word) the tests were and how they made the teachers stop teaching fun stuff (her words) and worry about the tests. Her parents seconded her remarks, then went out of the way to tell me that they were Republicans, but didn't agree with Governor Christie's attempts to impose a Tennessee solution on New Jersey. It's amazing what people will tell you if you look them in the eye and just listen to what they say.
Anyway, when I told the Tennessee teachers where I was from, they told me that they loved the NJEA because it had a backbone and stood up, as much as it could, to the governor.
I got the same treatment from Idaho. The president of the Idaho Education Association also professed admiration for New Jersey's public school teachers because she said that Idaho was moving towards a state salary system and that the state had appropriated money that should have gone to teacher's salaries to pay for a misguided technology venture that has no research behind it. I asked if the teachers had any say in the decision, and of course the answer was no. So much for professional respect.
From California's delegation, I heard the most distressing stories of administrative overreach, even to the point where an entire elementary school's faculty was being replaced because two teachers were accused of lewd acts with students. The administration's rationale? "We don't want any more surprises." I am not condoning anything the accused teachers might have done, but where are the due process protections promised to teachers as citizens of the United States? As I spoke to the California delegates about these and other occurrences, they said they thought that this could not happen in New Jersey because of its strong association. I certainly hope so.
Other teachers I spoke with consistently said the same things about New Jersey once I identified myself from the state: They admired and respected the NJEA for standing up for member's rights in a state where teachers still have strong protections and a unified membership. Even the new tenure law, signed by Christie in the dog days of August, keeps due process and tenure protections for all teachers who earn it, even as it takes longer to procure and streamlines the process of firing a teacher who doesn't meet local standards.
So as we begin another school year, I am proud to say that I am a New Jersey public school teacher.
I am proud to say that I am committed to educating children and young adults so they can become productive members of society. And I am proud to be a member of NJEA, an organization that has a national reputation as one that fosters a pro-education ethic, and one that has the best interests of its members at heart.
I've focused primarily on public schools here, but it's been my pleasure and honor to have worked in private schools and to have trained teachers who work in a wide variety of educational settings. Colleagues, remember that we do one of the most important paid jobs in the country. We have earned honor and respect and we show it through our deeds and actions. Have a great school year.
See more at:
www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
In honor of back-to-school time here in the Garden State (I know that schools in other states might have started in August), it's time for us to recognize the unparalleled job that New Jersey's public school teachers do year in and year out.
We consistently rank in the top 3 nationwide in student outcomes on most available measures; SAT, AP and NAEP scores, college acceptances (too many graduates go out-of-state, though), writing achievement and overall performance. We have some significant gaps between how suburban students perform and how their urban counterparts score, and that is a sore point both economically and politically.
But even with that huge caveat, we are the envy of other states. How do I know? Because this past July I attended the National Education Association convention in Washington, D.C., and many of my colleagues around the country told me so.
I spoke with delegates from Tennessee, and they told me that their statewide tests dictated their curriculum to the point that they had to jettison most enrichment material from their classrooms to make sure they covered the test material. They also said that for the two months before the tests, they did nothing but review and drill.
And just in case you think this is professional bias, I sat next to a family from Tennessee on the train down to DC, and their daughter, a high school senior from a town near Nashville, told me how ridiculous (her word) the tests were and how they made the teachers stop teaching fun stuff (her words) and worry about the tests. Her parents seconded her remarks, then went out of the way to tell me that they were Republicans, but didn't agree with Governor Christie's attempts to impose a Tennessee solution on New Jersey. It's amazing what people will tell you if you look them in the eye and just listen to what they say.
Anyway, when I told the Tennessee teachers where I was from, they told me that they loved the NJEA because it had a backbone and stood up, as much as it could, to the governor.
I got the same treatment from Idaho. The president of the Idaho Education Association also professed admiration for New Jersey's public school teachers because she said that Idaho was moving towards a state salary system and that the state had appropriated money that should have gone to teacher's salaries to pay for a misguided technology venture that has no research behind it. I asked if the teachers had any say in the decision, and of course the answer was no. So much for professional respect.
From California's delegation, I heard the most distressing stories of administrative overreach, even to the point where an entire elementary school's faculty was being replaced because two teachers were accused of lewd acts with students. The administration's rationale? "We don't want any more surprises." I am not condoning anything the accused teachers might have done, but where are the due process protections promised to teachers as citizens of the United States? As I spoke to the California delegates about these and other occurrences, they said they thought that this could not happen in New Jersey because of its strong association. I certainly hope so.
Other teachers I spoke with consistently said the same things about New Jersey once I identified myself from the state: They admired and respected the NJEA for standing up for member's rights in a state where teachers still have strong protections and a unified membership. Even the new tenure law, signed by Christie in the dog days of August, keeps due process and tenure protections for all teachers who earn it, even as it takes longer to procure and streamlines the process of firing a teacher who doesn't meet local standards.
So as we begin another school year, I am proud to say that I am a New Jersey public school teacher.
I am proud to say that I am committed to educating children and young adults so they can become productive members of society. And I am proud to be a member of NJEA, an organization that has a national reputation as one that fosters a pro-education ethic, and one that has the best interests of its members at heart.
I've focused primarily on public schools here, but it's been my pleasure and honor to have worked in private schools and to have trained teachers who work in a wide variety of educational settings. Colleagues, remember that we do one of the most important paid jobs in the country. We have earned honor and respect and we show it through our deeds and actions. Have a great school year.
See more at:
www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
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