And Now, Back to Your Corners

It was a busy week of sparring on both sides of the political aisle, and in the end, probably not much has changed, which helps some candidates and hurts others. Do remember that it is August and much of what has and will be said will fly away in the wind or get beaten down to nothingness in the heat and humidity. But we do have the beginnings of the campaign outline, for better and worse.

On the Republican side, the first debate, and don't forget about those who didn't poll well enough to have Megyn Kelly embarrass them, told us a good deal about the coming shape of the GOP race. It will not be kind to women's health.  Every one of the candidates, even moderates like George Pataki (nothing about him later), promised to be as dismissive, condescending, mean, uncompromising and punitive on women's reproductive rights as they possibly could. If the choice is between a women's life or a fetus's, women lose. Planned Parenthood? Gone. Exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother? Sorry--keep the child despite the circumstances.

In 2012, each Republican candidate said they would not raise taxes even to save the economy. Oh, for the good old days of GOP rationality. Unanimous agreement that women are second-class citizens takes their extremism to a new and disturbing level.

Then of course there was the talk of immigration and how high the wall should go before we say, "That's good." Listening to the candidates I thought that perhaps they considered the CBS program, "Under the Dome" to be a documentary worth investigating. What creeps into their comments, though, is the idea that all immigrants are suspect and that anyone, although we're really talking about Hispanics, should be questioned if they have an  accent. But I don't expect that the police would be worried about someone with an eastern European lilt to their voice.

As to which candidates helped themselves? Jeb, Marco Rubio and John Kasich stood out for both their answers and their demeanor. Ben Carson and Chris Christie did not do poorly, but they are not really part of the post-debate conversation, which only hurts them because they needed a good showing to overcome the "can't win" label.

On the left, Hillary Clinton was seen as the big winner from the GOP debate because she was the target of many of their comments, especially the ones most offensive to those who are liberal and/or support women's reproductive rights. Or marriage equality. Or the environment. This is allowing Clinton to move farther to the left on those issues and income inequality. That's fine for the base, but she's going to have to appeal to more moderates in the general election so she can't be seen as too  extreme on the other side of the spectrum. And the GOP is going to make a big deal about the e-mails she had on her private account. And Benghazi. But I don't think these will be major problems for her.

Bernie Sanders has been packing in the crowds and is slowly creeping up in the polls, but he has his own problems with many in the African-American community. I don't doubt for a minute that Sanders will address these concerns satisfactorily, but the last thing Democrats need is an internal split akin to what the Tea Party has done to the right. The left's strength has been in its unity, which is a fairly new concept for Democrats. They need to make sure they stay that way.

And I didn't even mention...you know.

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It's Opening Day! The GOP Breaks Training.

That's right folks. Tonight's GOP Presidential Debate marks the opening of the 2016 election season, taking over from the Iowa Straw Poll that is now canceled forever. It was bound to happen. Television is no match for some wealthy people eating steak and then moving around a tent to show their support for their candidate. Of course, Iowans will do pretty much the same thing this winter, but they'll be bundled up and in schools. Or living rooms. Without steak. Now I feel bad for Iowans.

Anyway. Tonight's debate.

The participants are set, with FOX having whittled a field of 17 Republican candidates down to 10 using a poll average that might or might not be very fair. Chris Christie is in, and must have let out quite a breath of relief in the process because his campaign was dependent upon his being in the limelight at all times so he could yell at the people that Donald Trump overlooks. John Kasich of Ohio, who only announced his bid in the past two weeks, also jumped into the fray, and he has the added advantage of actually being from...Ohio. Which the GOP needs desperately in order to win in 2016. That's where the Republican Convention will be held next year. It's where any nominee will have to set up shop and not leave. And hope Lebron and the Cavs can win the NBA title next June.

The other frontrunners will also be present, including Jeb, Marco. Scott, Rand, Ted, Mike and Donald Trump as this cycle's first candidate with a "moment." Remember in 2012 where each candidate had their time atop the polls until they imploded in gaffes or scandals? The exact same thing is happening now and Trump is the first to get lit. The national press is full of stories asking if Trump really could be the nominee. He can't be He won't be. Yes, it says a great deal about the present state of the party that he's atop the polls, but it won't last. If he's still in front on Halloween, I will rethink this. But he won't be. Move on.

The biggest beneficiaries once Trump blows up will be Christie and Walker, since they are the second choice of many of Trump's supporters. That's why both of them will continue in the race and why Christie, despite many saying that his campaign is destined to fail, need to face reality. He might not win, but he ain't going away anytime soon. Neither is Walker, despite being an intellectual lightweight. Smart politician, but he's going to have to win on personality and personally, I don't see that happening.

My take on the debate is that it's really Marco Rubio's to win or lose. He has great presence, he's young, he's energetic, and he's from Florida. If he can outshine, or at least hold his own with Jeb, then he will go a long way towards becoming a heavyweight candidate. Rand Paul can also surge if he stands out with his answers. Trump will bloviate; it's up to the rest of the field to essentially ignore him and to get their message out as succinctly as possible. No candidate will get more than 10 minutes of airtime during the debate, so looking and acting presidential is going to be the key. It will be interesting to see who comes up with the best lines, because policy is going to be in short supply. If you want a primer, this one is good.

As for those who didn't make the cut, all is not lost. It's still August and there's time to recover, but money will be sparse for the likes of Jindal, Perry and Graham. This is not a sprint, but it's a fast walk and you can fall behind quickly. Even Christie will need an infusion of money to keep him going after New Hampshire. It does not bode well for him to put all of his resources into that race. After that comes South Carolina, where he'll lose and then a whole bunch of tests in various states across the country. Will he, and the others, have enough to set up campaigns there? That's why the debate is crucial.

For political junkies, this is the first taste. There's more to come. Why do you think they call it dope?

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Acting Stupidly Would be an Improvement

Remember the halcyon days of 2009, when the country was embroiled in the first racial controversy of the brand new Obama presidency? You know, when the Cambridge, Massachusetts police thought that the world-renowned Harvard scholar Henry Louis Gates, Jr. was arrested for essentially breaking into his own house because the front door was stuck? 

Those were the good old days when it was possible to accuse the president of playing the race card (as if racism was ever a gentlemanly card game), when the Voting Rights Act of 1965 still had some teeth, and when accusing the policeman of "acting stupidly" made Obama the butt of jokes and the target of righteous anger because he didn't support law enforcement. The best thing we can say about that epsiode?

At least nobody was shot dead.

Little did the country know that the innocuous "Beer Summit" would be the last time that civility entered the conversation. Conservatives, and even a few liberals, thought that Obama had breached the wall of silence too quickly in his term. That he had to tread lightly and be careful because as the nation's first African-American president, he had to stay above the fray and not remind polite society that we have a bit of a complicated history when it comes to race. And guns. And law enforcement behavior. Seems quaint, yes?

I believe that police officers, perhaps more than any other public service job, have the most difficult environment in which to work. The police have to be correct almost 100% of the time. I support effective, proactive, respectful, sometimes forceful police work. Recent events have shown, however, that many police officers, and the criminal justice systems in towns and cities across this country, have not been held accountable for their actions or have lied about what's actually happened at traffic stops and crime scenes. This must stop.

I'm hoping that the Republican candidates in this week's debates will address the issue and that we'll hear more from the Democrats as well. But this needs to be done rather quickly because the real issue is trust. Right now, that level is dangerously low.

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