Predictions For 2019: Nothing Will Happen

That's right. Nothing meaningful will happen on the national political stage for an entire 12 months.  And just to make sure I cover all of my bases, nothing meaningful will happen in most other areas of American life in 2019

Of course I'll be wrong, but maybe you get the sense of why I'm saying these things. I'm not a pessimist. In fact, I'm one of the great all-time optimists presently trodding the soil. It's just that I don't see the split Congress and the far right White House making much headway towards solving some of our most pressing problems.

Could we get an infrastructure bill? Possibly, but that would mean that the president would have to give up his dream of a wall on the southern border, or the Democrats would have to up the amount of money they want to spend on the border to end the shutdown. At this point, I would think that the Democrats hold the better cards, if only because Trump is a minority president (oh, the irony) and holds a minority position that is supported by a minority of the population.

I understand that he's trying to hold on to his core supporters for 2020, but they won't be enough to give him a second term, since many people who voted for him simply despised Hillary Clinton and could vote for a more palatable Democrat. And speaking of, we'll get an early indication of who will be entering the 2020 contest in a matter of weeks. I"m fairly sure that New Jersey's own Senator Cory Booker will run, as will Senators Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand. Bernie Sanders will also explore an encore and Joe Biden will give it some serious thought. Honestly, none of them jump out at me as a clear winner, and it's possible that the nominee will not be one of this group.

Combine a divided government with epic fundraising and a president who doesn't know much about policy or how policy gets made into law or how the law works or whether he has to follow the law or whether he can just say what the law is and you get a year where not much is going to happen legislatively unless you consider investigations and calls for Trump's tax returns significant legal accomplishments.

Will there be fireworks? You bet. But precious little will get done that will actually improve the country.

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Shutdown and Foreign 'ffairs Follies: Just Another Brick In the Wall

Let's look at the latest destruction of American norms this way: Which countries seem to be the happiest with President Trump's assault on the institutions that won the Cold War and have kept the peace since 1945?

China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and although not countries, let's add Hezbollah and ISIS just because.

Could anyone think of a more motley collection of autocrats, dictators, murderers, liars, usurpers, and authoritarians who flout what pass for laws, constitutions, respect for human rights and the dignity of having your own opinion? Vladimir Putin loves the idea of the US pulling out of Syria. So dies Recep Erdogan. They couldn't comment quickly enough.

And let's also look at who was angriest at him for even suggesting that he would sign a budget bill without money for the worst policy idea of the past 80 years: FOX, Rush Limbaugh, Anne Coulter, Sean Hannity and the rest of the far right who did not then and do not now represent the majority view of how this country should comport itself domestically and in foreign affairs.

So naturally, Mr. 46% Small Hands, upon settling down in his bathrobe for the evening, sees that the TV is yelling at him and since the TV knows everything, he needs to shut down the government, deny workers their pay, deny everyone else the opportunity to visit national parks, and generally throw the country into an unsettling funk during the holiday season.

Of course, let's not forget that the president is also stomping on his own economic record by engaging in a silly trade war and being unpredictable enough that the business class, which should be reveling in the shower of money raining down on them, are flop-sweat nervous every weekday morning at 9:30, when the bell to open the stock market shouts its arrival.

The interesting turn in all of this is that I do not altogether disagree with pulling American troops out of quagmires in Afghanistan, Syria, and other nations where for 17 years we've been doing relatively little to solve problems. though we have, in some cases, prevented the political and social problems from getting worse. I supported President Obama's troop withdrawals and I would support President Trump's if I believed that he could do it the right way.

He proved that he could not. And my evidence:

Whither Bibi?

That's right, for all of the congratulations Trump received from the Killing Klass, we've heard not a peep out of Benjamin Netanyahu, who stands to lose a great deal, as does Israel, by an American withdrawal from the Middle East. Because the president, in one fell swoop, did more to strengthen Bashar al-Assad, the mullahs in Iran, Vladimir Putin and Hezbollah than anything they could have done on their own. And they all hate Israel. So the president who says that he loves Israel turns out not to really know what he's doing when it comes to our ally.

The same is true for our European and Asian allies as well. The president is talking about pulling back troops from Japan and South Korea because he doesn't see them contributing enough to their own defense. Making them pay more does make sense, but lessening our influence in a fit of FOX pique is irresponsible and dangerous. China is expanding in that area even with our troops present. Imagine what will happen if we leave.

Of course, Trump's real fear is that he will realistically lose his shot at history by losing the 2020 election, which is becoming more and more a probability. That's why he's focusing more and more on the far right elements of the electorate who supported him in 2016. 

The problem is that by shivving the economy with his unpredictable trade policies, advocating unconditionally for a wall that won't stop the ladders and tunnels (and private property lawsuits) that will inevitably breach it, and playing sandbox politics by telling the country that it's his government and if he doesn't like what's happening then he's going to shut it down, he is narrowing his supporters into only those elements and he will lose more of the moderate conservatives who couldn't stand Hillary Clinton and who then turned on the GOP last month. If he couldn't get a wall through a Republican Congress over the past two years, he's not getting it through Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Senators who have their eyes on the party's nomination.

Perhaps cooler heads will resolve the shutdown this weekend. The long-term problems, though, will live on with the bathrobe.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest

Did the GOP Just Lose the 2020 Election?

Health care.

Again.

Do the Republicans, and conservatives in general, really not get the fact that most Americans need reliable health insurance that covers the checkups,  basic procedures, and tests they need to stay healthy? Do they really not understand that, yes, you can lower the cost of health insurance, but past a certain point it becomes prohibitively expensive to actually use the plan because deductibles and co-insurance rates are sky high? Are they really that ignorant of the idea that reliable, comprehensive health insurance coverage is in itself a safety net that allows Americans to work productively and plan for their financial and physical future?

I guess not. 

Health care was the number one issue ion the 2018 elections, and the overwhelming majority of Americans said that they disapproved of taking away, or making more expensive, coverage for pre-existing conditions. They like that physicals require no co-payment and that contraceptives are covered by most employers. So what seems to be the GOP position on health care?

You're on your own, and if you have a pre-existing condition...stop it.

Of course, the Federal Court ruling last week is only the first step in the process of appeals that will likely culminate in a Supreme Court ruling in the middle of another presidential election. And we certainly know that Donald "Nobody Knew Health Care Could Be So Complicated" Trump is going to be absolutely useless on this issue. His response to the judicial ruling was to say that we're going to fix the system and get everybody great health care.

Except that he spent the first 8 months of his presidency trying to repeal the law that put us on that course, then supported a GOP bill that would have thrown 20 million people off their plans. And he had a Republican majority in both houses of Congress to help him, but they couldn't get it done. His opportunity to get a bill that actually fixes the deficiencies of the ACA is gone.

The GOP isn't getting any help from the states either. Soon to be ex-Governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, just signed a bill that prohibits the state from leaving a suit that challenges the ACA. I'm sure that more conservatives, even the ones who lost in November, will continue to try and get rid of the law. And people's health insurance. Without a workable alternative. Refill the swamp, no?

Now that the Democrats control the House of Representatives, the chances are they they will propose a bill more to the liking of most Americans who struggle with paying their bills and maintaining their health, which is mostly everyone with a middle class income or less. They should make necessary changes to the ACA and make sure that every American knows that the consequences of the Republican assault on their ability to buy insurance will mean a drop in their quality of life, not just a huge bill for services that are too expensive to be rendered.

And it's not just health care that will ultimately spell doom for the Republicans. The climate, pollution, indictments, the trade war, unconscionable treatment of refugees and those who are trying to flee political and personal terror, a tax law that will explode the deficit and help the wealthy, the stock market, overt racism and sexism and, ultimately, a president who knows no boundaries when it comes to disrespecting the constitution, will all combine to remind voters that the United States is better than those who are presently running it.

It was immigration that likely won the election for Trump in 2016. Health care will be his, and the GOP's undoing in 2020.

For more, go to www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives or Twitter @rigrundfest