Years from now, will you remember where you were and what you were doing when the Supreme Court issued its ruling in the Affordable Care case? It was that important and it seemed as though just about everybody was following it like a World Series game. Participatory democracy gets no better than that.
Of course there were the obvious glitches, such as CNN and FOX getting the story wrong at first. You'd think that after waiting three months for the decision, they could have waited an extra 3 minutes for their experts to parse the details. Then there's the story that talks about a "jaw-dropping switch," meaning Chief Justice John Robert's joining the four liberals on the court to uphold the law. This completely unexpected move is only unexpected if you happened to buy into the narrative that the law, or at least the mandate, was toast because, well, the media and the Intrade market said it was.
Even better was the comeuppance of the ultra-smug conservative media that was absolutely sure that they had this case sewn up as soon as Don Verilli was done speaking. That he's been vindicated (need free registration to read this link) in both the health care and immigration cases speaks volumes about what people don't know about what passes muster in court arguments.
The big questions, though, are obviously political. In terms of policy, Obama has his base-energizing victory and a policy he now has to defend with gusto, something that's been missing since the bill was passed. Polls have shown that the mandate is still unpopular, but other aspects of the bill have support. It's time for the administration to start selling this hard and in earnest. More Americans will have health insurance, seniors will no longer have to tolerate the doughnut hole in their Medicare prescription coverage, and those with preexisting conditions will now be covered. Many changes have already taken effect. More states will also need to set up exchanges to help people find insurance.
As for Mitt Romney, he's already addressed the court's decision with a full-throated call for repeal, calling the law a violation of our freedoms and bad for the economy. His problem is that today the court also indirectly validated the Massachusetts health care law that Romney championed as governor. And remember that the mandate was originally a Republican idea meant to provide an alternative to the Clinton health care plan of the early '90. So for Mitt, this decision means that he has to run even harder against one of the signature accomplishments of his political career. The good news for him is that his base is also fired up because of today's decision. The bad news is that he's going to run against the whole law, even the parts that people like, and he doesn't have an alternative to the clear problem of the uninsured and the very sick except to say that the magic of the marketplace will cure their ills. That's a tough sell.
The other political issue is the election horse race. Obama's poll numbers have been improving for the past week, both nationally and in several swing states. There are some states that Obama needs to win that are now considered tossups, which is better news for Romney, but the trend is toward Obama. The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls will give us some idea of the effect of today's ruling, so I'll check back in with that early next week, and I'll have a full polling report on July 6.
In the end, Barack Obama rolled a huge set of dice by asking the Supreme Court to rule on this issue in the middle of an election campaign, and he won a huge victory. He's also staked his positions on marriage equality and immigration reform for the children of illegals that speak to fairness and equality. Mitt Romney is now in a position where he has to disagree, and that puts him at odds with basic American values. June was always going to be a pivotal month. It has not let us down.
Join the discussion at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Friday, June 22, 2012
If You Can't Stand The Heat
Do you remember the pundits and knobheads who, only a few short months ago, compared Barack Obama to LeBron James? Their major point was that both of them were overhyped, overpriced, underperforming, middling losers who were somehow primed to disappoint their fans and constituents. These know-nothings were sure that neither man would ever rise to greatness.
Look how that turned out.
I can understand disagreeing with a politician over issues or policy or implementation and not liking an athlete because of his style, team or relations with the public. But the comparison of these two obviously talented men moves beyond these fair points and veers off into, well, what? Jealousy? Contempt? Disdain? Outright hatred? Where's the respect for what they've accomplished? Obama's rivals give some grudging admission that he's a political force, but then dismiss him as a guy with a pretty voice. LeBron's detractors focus on his subpar performance in last year's NBA finals without regard to his place as the game's number one attraction and performer (on both ends of the court).
It's disturbing, and now that LeBron has forever earned his place in NBA history and Obama his obvious place in the political realm, it's time to expose the naysayers as the bad losers they are. Clearly they underestimate these two exceptional men who are at the pinnacle of their fields. It's true that Obama might lose, but I'm not going to bet against him. He has more skill than Mitt Romney and right now we're in the equivalent of the early playoffs in the presidential race. In September, you'll see a different Obama; confident and pugnacious against an opponent who's never played in the big leagues before. That's a mismatch.
Wanna talk smack? Visit www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Look how that turned out.
I can understand disagreeing with a politician over issues or policy or implementation and not liking an athlete because of his style, team or relations with the public. But the comparison of these two obviously talented men moves beyond these fair points and veers off into, well, what? Jealousy? Contempt? Disdain? Outright hatred? Where's the respect for what they've accomplished? Obama's rivals give some grudging admission that he's a political force, but then dismiss him as a guy with a pretty voice. LeBron's detractors focus on his subpar performance in last year's NBA finals without regard to his place as the game's number one attraction and performer (on both ends of the court).
It's disturbing, and now that LeBron has forever earned his place in NBA history and Obama his obvious place in the political realm, it's time to expose the naysayers as the bad losers they are. Clearly they underestimate these two exceptional men who are at the pinnacle of their fields. It's true that Obama might lose, but I'm not going to bet against him. He has more skill than Mitt Romney and right now we're in the equivalent of the early playoffs in the presidential race. In September, you'll see a different Obama; confident and pugnacious against an opponent who's never played in the big leagues before. That's a mismatch.
Wanna talk smack? Visit www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Obama Is Back
This guy is a political genius, and the right wing just can't stand it when Obama acts presidential or outmaneuvers them on policies and public opinion. They pilloried him for evidently making gas prices go sky high, prompting Mitt Romney to blame his for economic pain, then he gets them to plummet by 30c at the pump, and magically, the issue goes away.
Obama's move on immigration was an election year masterstroke. It was a blatant political move meant to shore up the Latino base and it had the intended effect of highlighting the split in the Republican Party between radical fence builders and the more moderate wing that see that demographic fleeing from the GOP. And Romney again has nowhere to go on this issue because, while he might have been sympathetic during his sensible years, he's since staked out a claim in Santorumville that requires drivers only to make hard right turns.
The president is also beginning to hammer home the differences between his economic plan and Romney's. It might be true that independent voters see Obama's policies as hindering economic growth, but it's still early in the campaign. Once he highlights the effects of Romney's cut first plan and a more pragmatic vision that includes cuts and investment, those voters will come back in sufficient numbers to win him the election.
And the horse race numbers? Yes, they are close, but Obama is ahead in enough states now to capture 270+ electoral votes. Michigan is not going red and neither are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin nor Virginia unless we get terrible economic news over the summer. In fact, the economies in the swing states are outperforming the national economy. That favors the president.
The Supreme Court's decision later this month will shape the race, but it will also emphasize Romney's opposition to protections for people with pre-existing conditions and will force him to move farther right on health care. Most Americans do still oppose the individual mandate, but they also need affordable coverage. Obama offers that; Mitt doesn't.
And there's one final reason why we know Obama is turning his campaign around: Rush Limbaugh says that the president is panicking. The right must be very nervous.
Please join the fun at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Obama's move on immigration was an election year masterstroke. It was a blatant political move meant to shore up the Latino base and it had the intended effect of highlighting the split in the Republican Party between radical fence builders and the more moderate wing that see that demographic fleeing from the GOP. And Romney again has nowhere to go on this issue because, while he might have been sympathetic during his sensible years, he's since staked out a claim in Santorumville that requires drivers only to make hard right turns.
The president is also beginning to hammer home the differences between his economic plan and Romney's. It might be true that independent voters see Obama's policies as hindering economic growth, but it's still early in the campaign. Once he highlights the effects of Romney's cut first plan and a more pragmatic vision that includes cuts and investment, those voters will come back in sufficient numbers to win him the election.
And the horse race numbers? Yes, they are close, but Obama is ahead in enough states now to capture 270+ electoral votes. Michigan is not going red and neither are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin nor Virginia unless we get terrible economic news over the summer. In fact, the economies in the swing states are outperforming the national economy. That favors the president.
The Supreme Court's decision later this month will shape the race, but it will also emphasize Romney's opposition to protections for people with pre-existing conditions and will force him to move farther right on health care. Most Americans do still oppose the individual mandate, but they also need affordable coverage. Obama offers that; Mitt doesn't.
And there's one final reason why we know Obama is turning his campaign around: Rush Limbaugh says that the president is panicking. The right must be very nervous.
Please join the fun at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)