Registered and Likely: A Tale of Two Voters

A number of polls have been released in the past few days that continue to show the presidential race to be very close. What's worth discussing at this point is the difference between polls that measure registered voters (RV) and those that have switched over to likely voter (LV) models. There's a terrific article by Mark Blumenthal of HuffPost/Pollster that discusses this issue and he comes to some interesting, and ultimately unsatisfying conclusions. From the article:

The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now?

The answer, in part

These "measures of engagement and intention to vote are useful as indicators of likely turnout on the aggregate level" at this stage in the campaign," Pew Research associate research director Michael Dimock explained to The Huffington Post in June, "but they are only loosely predictors of whether an individual is or is not likely to vote this November."

"As we get closer to Election Day," he added, "particularly after the conventions and into the debate season -- these indicators become stronger."

With this in mind, let's take a look at some recent polls that use LV models. Purple Strategies released a number of swing state polls showing Obama leading in Ohio (+3), Virginia (+2) and Colorado (+1) and Romney leading in Florida (+3). All of these results are within the margin of error and seem to suggest that Obama does well in states where he polls well with women and lags where men and independents do not support him. The Florida results are also in line with a Mason-Dixon poll that also uses an LV model and shows Obama with a 1 point advantage. Likewise, a new Rasmussen poll of Virginia also shows Obama with a small lead of 47-46%.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll uses an LV model and shows Romney with a 1 point lead today, within the margin of error.

If it's true that Republicans tend to do better with LV models, then we can assume that Obama is truly ahead in the states where he leads and that Romney will need to move the dials a bit to overtake him.
On the RV side, a new Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey gives Obama a 49%-38% lead while slightly oversampling Republicans. New Jersey is D 33/R 20/I 47 while the poll was D 34/R 24/ I 37.

Presumably, even if Quinnipiac went to an LV screen, Romney would not be within threatening distance of the president. My view is that New Jersey will remain blue this November.

A PPP Poll of Iowa has Obama leading by 48-43% with a D 35/ R 34/ I 30 split, when in reality, Iowa breaks D 31/ R 32/ I 37. PPP, which has a Democratic leaning house effect, has also slightly underpolled Republicans and overpolled Democrats. This leads me to believe that Iowa will probably lean Romney once polls move to an LV model.

At this point in the campaign, using likely voter models do not seem to be diverging a great deal from polls that use registered voters. As we get closer to the campaign's major events, that will change. Romney has yet to choose a running mate, and that will help his numbers. The conventions will also provide major bumps for both candidates, as will the results of the first televised debate. If voters are settling in on one candidate, that will become evident by the middle of September, and as long as respondents tell the truth about their voting habits (what is the percentage of people who lie about such things?) we'll get a fairly accurate view of any election trends.

Right now? Enjoy the summer, baseball and the Olympics.

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Whither Christie?

Tired of the playground brawl that is the presidential election? Does the thought of two wonky, somewhat unpopular guys playing nyah-nyah get you down? Well, there's always the drama created by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

But now that's getting old too.

Yes, it seems as though the GOP's darling is playing a little thinner these days and his antics don't carry quite the same weight as they did eight months ago when he was denying himself, and the poor old United States, a run for the presidency. For the record, Christie will not be Mitt Romney's running mate, nor will he be the Republican Party's candidate for president any time soon, if ever. He might be a featured speaker at the GOP convention or get a cabinet post in a Romney administration and leave the frustrations of Trenton behind, but my sense is that he'd get bored being one of the lesser cabinet members and he could conceivably get us into some kind of war if offered State, Defense or Trade Representative. Secretary of Education? Here's what would happen on his first day in office:



Transportation? Why, use a helicopter to get around the traffic.

The truth is that people in other parts of the country think they know Chris Christie, but really, how do you export that personality to the rest of the country? I've always disliked the stereotype of a "New Jersey attitude" and believe it to be harmful to the state, but even I won't deny that Christie does exude a certain Garden State brusqueness. The problem is that it's getting old here. A few months on the road and you'd see video of people with their mouths agape and eyes aghast at the man. Is he still popular with the base? No doubt. But the rest of the country has some manners, and the governor has shown that at critical times, he doesn't. Even worse, if Romney doesn't win in November, then Christie might get tagged as a loser for supporting him. That would seriously damage his aura.

Don't get me wrong. Christie can point to some significant legislative accomplishments including a 2% cap on municipal spending and the public worker pension and benefits bill that makes teachers, police and firefighters pay more while allowing him to delay full pension payments to the state. And rumor has it that he's about to sign a teacher tenure reform bill that streamlines the process of firing an ineffective teacher, but not after two negative evaluations. That he was able to get the NJEA to the table on tenure is a win for him, but it's only a small part of what he wanted to accomplish, and he's frustrated. The suburbs are pushing back on Charter Schools, and the legislature will not give him that tax cut that is the gold standard of every Republican lawmaker looking to win national acclaim.

The problem is that the Democrats will continue to hold the legislature even if Christie wins reelection in 2013. What fun would that be? And how many more YouTube videos can you make berating retired public workers, soldiers and lefties who question his policies? (No, I will not provide links to those videos, but you can find them easily enough.) So in this summer of discontent, the good governor has some decisions to make. None of them are easy, but all will have long term impacts on his career. I expect that he will carry on as he has been because what he's done so far is not an act. It's who he is. And that might be the biggest problem of them all.

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Poll Popping For Numbers Junkies

After a respite following the Supreme Court's decision in the health care case, a flurry of polls has been released in the past two days showing the presidential race nationally and in the states to be close, but slightly in the president's favor.

The best news for Obama comes in a PPP poll of Wisconsin that shows Obama leading Romney by 50-44%. What makes this result even more impressive is that PPP had a D/R/I split of 30/32/38, while the Wisconsin state breakdown is D 38/ R 34/ I 28, thus under-counting Democrats and overcounting Independents. If Obama is +6 under those conditions, then Romney is in trouble if he wants to peel away this state. Further, a Marquette University poll shows Obama ahead 51-43% using likely voters and a D 29/R 33/I 36 breakdown. As with PPP, this underpolls Democrats, providing even better news for the president.

A new We Ask America poll of Pennsylvania has Obama ahead of Romney by 47-40%, but unfortunately they don't provide cross-tabs or other data on their polls, so it's difficult to assess their overall validity. They do advertise that the poll is of likely voters and it does confirm a trend towards the president evident in the RCP average for the Keystone State, so the results do make sense. It would be nice to have some more data, though. We Ask America also released a New Mexico poll, but its results, Obama +11, only confirms other polls that show that state firmly in the blue column.

As for the national polls, here's a terrific analysis by HuffPost/Pollster's Mark Blumenthal that essentially shows that the overall race hasn't budged in months (see chart below).

 
Blumenthal does point out, though, that when pollsters begin moving from registered voters to likely voter models, probably just before the conventions, we will probably see Mitt Romney pick up support since LV polls tend to favor Republicans. My take on these national surveys is that Romney has not yet risen above 47% support. If that's his ceiling, he's in trouble. If he begins polling above that consistently, then he will likely win in November.

Of course, there are some ominous signs for the president in some of the numbers. His approval ratings haven't budged and he's still underwater on his job performance. Jay Cost has an interesting analysis of why this does not bode well for Obama. Also, Obama's standing among blue collar men has dropped to new lows according to both the Quinnipiac and ABC/WaPo surveys. The president didn't rely on this group in 2008, but they will be key in close swing states such as Iowa and Ohio.

A spate of Senate polls has good news for the Democrats (and Angus King in Maine, who will probably caucus with the Democrats if he wins) in Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico. Florida provides the best news for the GOP with Connie Mack leading Bill Nelson by 9%.

That's the snapshot at this moment in time and the summer usually doesn't provide much guidance as Americans focus more on their vacations, finding a job, and the Olympics. The political scene will begin to heat up next month and we'll get a better sense of the state of the race.

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