Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Cruz Bumps Trump, Rubio A ReMarcoble Third, Dems Deadlocked

I'm not really the type to say "I told you so," but I indeed told you so on numerous occasions that Donald Trump would not be the GOP nominee and neither will Ted Cruz. Trump's second place finish in Iowa is but the first blow to his campaign, because while he was battering Cruz with ads and withering sarcasm, Marco Rubio, who is no moderate, snuck up on him and finished a very strong third. This gives the GOP alternatives to Trump and my sense is that they will take advantage of that.

Iowa also marked the beginning of either the beginning or the end of some of the more moderate Republican campaigns. Jeb, Kasich and Christie absolutely must come in second or third in the Granite State if they are to have any traction for the rest of the month and to stick around for Super Tuesday. By next week the GOP field should lose Fiorina, Carson and Paul, and their supporters will have to go somewhere. My guess is that they won't go to Trump or Cruz.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Bernie and Hillary were locked in a tight race that likely serves Sanders better because the polls said he would lose by a small margin. To lose by an even smaller margin, or perhaps to eke out a small win, puts Clinton back a bit going into New Hampshire where Bernie is expected to do very well.

Funny how actual voting can really mess up a narrative. Onward we go.

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