Thursday, June 14, 2012

Tenure Agonistes

I understand at this point that Governor Christie is competing only against himself, but how many misleading, incomplete ideas can one person have? If he had more than his ALEC talking points we might be able to have a conversation, but his comments yesterday were truly, amazingly wrong. In case you missed them:
The Christie push came at one of his town hall meetings, this one before more than 600 people in a Haddonfield middle school. He again invoked the example of just 17 teachers facing tenure charges as ineffective in the past decade, out of more than 100,000 in the classroom. "Do we really believe there are only 17 ineffective teachers in New Jersey?" he asked the receptive audience.
No, we don't, and that includes those of us in education. What the governor misses is that hundreds of potentially ineffective tenured teachers are weeded out in the first three years of employment. More leave the profession by the end of their 5th year. And maybe there are only 17 tenure cases because the administrators haven't kept accurate records or gave the teachers a pass because they didn't want to make waves or didn't want to believe that someone they actually hired could be ineffective.

Perhaps the 17 cases are the result of political interference or vendettas against union agitators or are witch hunts. We don't know, and here's the key, neither does the governor. If these 17 teachers deserve to lose their jobs because they are ineffective, I say mazel tov! The system works. But again, all Christie has are the numbers.

As for today's hearings on the Diegnan (D-Middlesex) bill, I am cautiously optimistic. Here are the key provisions of the bill:
  • Tenure would be provided after four years employment in a school district; 
  • A new teacher would spend their first year in a mentorship program during which the new teacher will be partnered with a highly effective teacher for assistance, support and guidance;
  • Each school district would have to annually submit to the education commissioner the evaluation plan it will use to test the effectiveness of teachers and administrators

  • Any teacher or administrator who receives an ineffective rating on two consecutive annual evaluations may face tenure charges;
  • Any teacher or administrator who receives an ineffective rating on three consecutive annual evaluations must face tenure charges;
  • Binding arbitration would be required for any contested tenure cases, with the arbitrator's decision becoming binding and not subject to appeal;
  • The Public Employees Relations Commission would choose the arbitrator from a permanent list of 20, eight of which will be designated by the New Jersey Education Association, eight by the New Jersey School Boards Association and four by the New Jersey Principal and Supervisors Association through mutual agreement.
  • Contested cases would no longer be referred to Administrative Law Judges, and the final determination would no longer be made by the education commissioner;
  • The hearing before the arbitrator must be held within 60 days of the case being assigned, and the arbitrator would have 30 days to render a decision.
As someone who's taught Alternate Route courses, I have always been an advocate for a mentoring year for new teachers. For too long we've assumed that all new teachers have the tools and skills to manage their classrooms and guide students through the curriculum. Many do, but not all. New teachers should learn from the best.

I also welcome the provisions that speed the tenure charge process and move it to arbitration. That the New Jersey School Boards Association is concerned only with who gets to pick the arbitrators is a positive step that should be remedied easily.

My concerns center on who gets to decide if a teacher faces tenure charges after two ineffective evaluations. The bill says that a teacher may face them. What does that mean? Also, requiring a decision in a tenure case in 30 days might lead to rushed judgements. Evidence is not always so cooperative.

I am heartened by Senator Ruiz's reaction to what transpired today. She altered her bill to allow for more seniority rights, after initially wanting to end them.

The key to any tenure reform plan must be the continued due process protection that lies at its heart. Adjusting years or determining who hears a case amount to so much window dressing compared to the constitutional rights inherent in fair dismissal cases. Ruiz and Diegnan recognize this. The Governor doesn't.

For more, please visit www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Panic! At the Campaign

Did you know that the Democrats are panicking? It's true. I know it because I read it in the media. Obama's campaign is panicking. FOX News says that Obama's panicking. Even Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager (and I'm pretty sure the other half of Loggins and Messina) worries about Democrats panicking.

Why the panic? Jobs numbers, dumb comments about the private economy being fine and a general sense that Obama just isn't on his game obviously have the progressive left in a panic about the president's chances in November. A closer look at what's actually happening with the campaign shows that there is no need for panic, and, indeed, there is reason for optimism.

The conventional wisdom, until last week that is, was that Obama's ads attacking Romney's record at Bain Capital were doing more damage to Obama than to Mitt. Surprise! That's not the case. In fact, the attacks have had their intended effect. More people have a negative view of private equity firms according to the latest polls. Imagine that; negative ads that produce negative responses towards your opponent. Perhaps the Republicans should try that.

The real wonder is that Democrats would entertain the idea that a negative ad aimed at Romney highlighting his past actions would somehow be off limits (do you hear me Bill?). This is the point in the campaign where you'd better define your opponent or they will define themselves. It's exactly what the Romney campaign is trying to do on the economy and it's what Obama needs to continue to do until the conventions.

The blabbering media narrative from last week also focused on the effects the dismal job numbers and Scott Walker's win in Wisconsin would have on the president. What's the reality? The latest polls show Obama holding on to his lead, though it is reduced from a month ago. Obama's approval ratings? Gallup has him +4 and Rasmussen at -4, which are pretty much where Obama was a couple of days after the economic reports were released. Conclusion? The president is in decent shape. Even the folks at Intrade have Obama with a more than 52% chance of reelection. That is hardly a reason to panic.

The latest state polls also provide good news for Obama. He's +6 in Pennsylvania, and a poll on Wednesday showing Romney ahead in North Carolina by 2 was really good news for the president because it also showed him inexplicably with only 78% of the African-American vote. Really? Anybody who believes that Mitt Romney is going to rack up 20+% of the African-American vote in November is either dreaming or on bath salts.

Ultimately, this race will be about the economy and jobs, and right now Obama has a jobs plan and Mitt doesn't. Obama has a pragmatic foreign policy record and Mitt just wants to throw bombs at the world. Energy prices are down, marriage equality is up, and even Obama's gaffe might help him in the long run.

I'm not panicking. This was always going to be a close race for a variety of reasons, and for all of the problems the president is currently having this month (with the health care ruling still to come), Obama is in good shape entering the summer. Romney has yet to tell us what he'd do as president and most polls say the public sides with Obama when it comes to balancing cuts with revenue and long-term investment in America.

Still, we all have those nervous moments. If you feel a panic attack coming on, let me soothe you at: www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Polling Report: June 6, 2012

This is getting real. Bad economic numbers last Friday. Bad revised economic numbers last Friday. Bad economic numbers from Europe last week and this. Bad, bad, bad. But bad news is good news for Mitt Romney and his rolling marshmallow review. Mitt has been gaining in the polls for the past month and he shows no sign of slowing down. Is this the end for Obama and Joe? Will they fall victim to a slow economy and a political opposition that will just do nothing but wait out the year at the expense of working people everywhere?

We have five months to find out. And at some point during those five months, Mitt Romney will slip and stumble and Barack Obama will soar and inspire. On to the numbers.

As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.2% and Romney 45.2 % in the latest RCP average. Considering how bad (bad) Friday's jobs numbers were, it's truly remarkable that Obama's numbers have stayed the same. Even Rasmussen's poll showed the president rebounding from -5 over the weekend to -1 on Tuesday. Obama's job approval has taken a hit, but seems to have settled down to a tie in Gallup and -5 (down from -8) on Rasmussen.

These numbers have shifted from last month as Romney has solidified his position as nominee and he got a nice bounce after the far righties left the race. Democrats who wistfully remember all of the gaffes and outrageous comments from Santorum, Cain and Gingrich are wondering where the momentum went?

I'll tell you.

It went away because Mitt is, in essence a near-right conservative and closet moderate who is not as scary to voters as his Republican compatriots were. Wondering why he's doing better with women? It's because he hasn't had to answer every anti-female utterance from the other nominees. The economy? Never interrupt your opponent when things are going bad for him. Solyndra? Ahh, Solyndra. Just say Solyndra 127 times a day and the world will beat a path to your door. In short, it's been easy for Mitt over the past 30 days.

Obama, to be honest, has not looked at the top of his game, and the newly energetic conservative media has let him have it. Unemployment up, Solyndra, Bain attacks attacked by Democrats, Solyndra, manufacturing down, Solyndra. The lefty media isn't helping and fundraising is down.

Through all of this, though, Obama's numbers are not bad, and if he can weather this storm, he can come back in fine position by the convention.

The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 237-170 (RCP), 257-181, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), and 276-243 (Electoral-vote.com). North Carolina has tightened, as have Wisconsin (though exit polls Tuesday showed Obama with a lead over Romney) and Virginia, two states that Obama needs to win, but Missouri and Iowa are still in play which has to make the Romney campaign a bit nervous. A new PPP poll of Florida, taken during and after the jobs numbers were released, shows Obama with a 50-46 lead. Imagine: Obama at 50%! And PPP even overpolled Republicans (FL actual: D=41 R=36 PPP Poll D=41 R=40).

There have been a number of recent articles that discuss which previous year we can compare this election to, such as 1980, 1992 or 2004. The answer? Don't know. We could have a Romney/Republican blowout if people decide that they just can't give Obama another four years. We could have a Democratic Senate if polls continue to show their candidates making inroads in Virginia, Massachusetts and Missouri and, if expected, Angus King of Maine wins and caucuses to his left. As of now, the Generic Ballot favors the Republcians, but that will change.

What won't change?

Attacks, money, Bill Clinton saying silly things.

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