Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Polling Report: June 6, 2012

This is getting real. Bad economic numbers last Friday. Bad revised economic numbers last Friday. Bad economic numbers from Europe last week and this. Bad, bad, bad. But bad news is good news for Mitt Romney and his rolling marshmallow review. Mitt has been gaining in the polls for the past month and he shows no sign of slowing down. Is this the end for Obama and Joe? Will they fall victim to a slow economy and a political opposition that will just do nothing but wait out the year at the expense of working people everywhere?

We have five months to find out. And at some point during those five months, Mitt Romney will slip and stumble and Barack Obama will soar and inspire. On to the numbers.

As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.2% and Romney 45.2 % in the latest RCP average. Considering how bad (bad) Friday's jobs numbers were, it's truly remarkable that Obama's numbers have stayed the same. Even Rasmussen's poll showed the president rebounding from -5 over the weekend to -1 on Tuesday. Obama's job approval has taken a hit, but seems to have settled down to a tie in Gallup and -5 (down from -8) on Rasmussen.

These numbers have shifted from last month as Romney has solidified his position as nominee and he got a nice bounce after the far righties left the race. Democrats who wistfully remember all of the gaffes and outrageous comments from Santorum, Cain and Gingrich are wondering where the momentum went?

I'll tell you.

It went away because Mitt is, in essence a near-right conservative and closet moderate who is not as scary to voters as his Republican compatriots were. Wondering why he's doing better with women? It's because he hasn't had to answer every anti-female utterance from the other nominees. The economy? Never interrupt your opponent when things are going bad for him. Solyndra? Ahh, Solyndra. Just say Solyndra 127 times a day and the world will beat a path to your door. In short, it's been easy for Mitt over the past 30 days.

Obama, to be honest, has not looked at the top of his game, and the newly energetic conservative media has let him have it. Unemployment up, Solyndra, Bain attacks attacked by Democrats, Solyndra, manufacturing down, Solyndra. The lefty media isn't helping and fundraising is down.

Through all of this, though, Obama's numbers are not bad, and if he can weather this storm, he can come back in fine position by the convention.

The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 237-170 (RCP), 257-181, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), and 276-243 ( North Carolina has tightened, as have Wisconsin (though exit polls Tuesday showed Obama with a lead over Romney) and Virginia, two states that Obama needs to win, but Missouri and Iowa are still in play which has to make the Romney campaign a bit nervous. A new PPP poll of Florida, taken during and after the jobs numbers were released, shows Obama with a 50-46 lead. Imagine: Obama at 50%! And PPP even overpolled Republicans (FL actual: D=41 R=36 PPP Poll D=41 R=40).

There have been a number of recent articles that discuss which previous year we can compare this election to, such as 1980, 1992 or 2004. The answer? Don't know. We could have a Romney/Republican blowout if people decide that they just can't give Obama another four years. We could have a Democratic Senate if polls continue to show their candidates making inroads in Virginia, Massachusetts and Missouri and, if expected, Angus King of Maine wins and caucuses to his left. As of now, the Generic Ballot favors the Republcians, but that will change.

What won't change?

Attacks, money, Bill Clinton saying silly things. and on Twitter @rigrundfest 

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