Thursday, May 31, 2012

NBC/Marist Gets It Right

On the heels of last week's NBC News/Marist polls that underpolled Republicans and made it look as though the president was ahead when he really wasn't, today's NBC polls got it pretty much exactly right. That's good news for Obama in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.

In Nevada, Obama leads Romney by 48%-46%. The actual voter breakdown is D=42 R=37 I=21. NBC's poll was D=40 R=38 I=21. There was a slight underpolling of Democrats, but that's only better news for Obama.

In Colorado, Obama leads Romney 46%-45%. The actual voter breakdown is D=33 R=35 I=32. NBC's poll was D=31 R=35 I=34. Almost exactly correct. Nice job NBC

In Iowa, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%. The actual voter breakdown is D=34 R=31 I=35. NBC's poll was D=34 R=35 I=31. There was a slight overpolling of Republicans, but otherwise the results seem solid.

There has been a great deal of talk about the polling in the presidential election, but 5+ months out, much of the results are not predictive of what will probably happen in November. Yes, Obama is stuck nationally at around 47%, but his approval numbers are close to 50% and he's leading in most of the states that he needs to win to be reelected. Romney is polling close to the president in the states above and is ahead in Ohio according to a Rasmussen poll out on Thursday.

My sense is that the unemployment numbers for May, out on Friday, will do a great deal to shape the race before the summer. Remember that the June numbers will be released during the July 4 holiday week and July's numbers come out in August when the Olympics will steal the show and, well, it'll be August.

June could also be a make or break month for other reasons, including the Wisconsin recall race, and two Supreme Court decisions on health care and immigration. Right now Obama is still the favorite, but that could change quickly depending on these external events.

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