OK lefties, let's face some serious reality. The unemployment picture is
probably not going to improve much between now and the election and
Congress is certainly not going to pass any landmark law that's going to
help either the jobs picture, the debt, social programs or the
environment.
At this point in the election cycle, many people will be making up their minds about whether the president deserves
a second term or whether to give someone else a chance. These people
are not paying attention to the election at the same level that we are
and many of them won't care about the GOP's policies that might
negatively impact them. They will only see that the country is going in
the wrong direction.
That's where we must step in. Begin now to
make sure that your wavering friends and neighbors know the
consequences of electing Republicans to all three branches of the
government, and giving them free reign to enact their tax-cutting,
social program-starving, feed-the-rich diet program they've promised
America. Posters, bumper stickers and, yes, social media posts are a
nice way to reach people, but the best is through one-to-one contact. Be
friendly. Try to educate and explain as opposed to being strident and
oppositional. I know it's difficult given the passion you feel, but most
people just want to get information and go on with their day.
This is a winnable election against a much-less-than-inspiring opponent,
but the Republicans will have more money to spend and we know that they
spare no penny, fact or anti-fact to make sure that their message gets
out. We need to fight that penny for penny and fact for fact.
Start now. Fight hard. Be persistent. Tell the truth. Smile. We only
have until November 6, but I believe that we, and the country, will win.
There's more at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Monday, July 9, 2012
Friday, July 6, 2012
Polling Report: July 6, 2012
This is a double numbers day, with both a polling report and the release of the jobs numbers for June. There are only four months to go before the election, the focus on the economy has already been intense, and the fallout from the ACA decision is only complicating matters. Looking for clarity? Consult the I Ching.
How the jobs report will impact the election will take time to sort out. Meanwhile, the polling numbers have moved in the president's direction over the past month, slowing a trend towards Romney that had existed in May and early June. The big picture would seem to be working against the president because the economy is still slow, but Romney has evidently caught John Kerry disease, what with his recent vacation pictures and saying that students should get as much as education they can afford. He's going to have to stop the rich guy stuff if he wants to win.
As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.0% support and Romney 44.4% according to the latest RCP average. Obama's job approval has taken a hit, and he's underwater in most polls, but that doesn't seem to have affected his overall numbers. Yet. The honest truth is that most people, and specifically most independents, aren't paying attention to the election and won't until the early fall. Right now it's people like you and me who are fretting over every poll and uttered word that comes out of each campaign. For most other people, the election will take a back seat to finding a job, baseball, vacations, the Olympics, and most daily activities.
The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 221-181 (RCP), 240-191, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), 326-212 (Electoral-vote.com) and 217-206 (New York Times). North Carolina has moved to Romney's column for now and it will take a big turnout effort by Obama to repeat his 2008 victory. Ohio has moved towards the president, influenced mainly by a late June Quinnipiac poll that has Obama +9. The president is also presently holding on to Florida and Virginia, but those leads are tenuous and if the jobs numbers are very bad, watch for those states to show some movement away from Obama. I still expect the president to win Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he'll need to spend resources in each of those states this summer. Romney will force Obama to defend Wisconsin and Michigan for now, and if the polls remain close in those two states it will mean trouble for Democrats.
Protocol requires that I have a paragraph that uses hedge words to keep you interested, so here goes. Romney was having a good month until his campaign began to send some mixed messages and then he completely botched his response to the health care case. That's led to a conservative backlash from the Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch. Still, for as bad a month as he's had, he's still in the race and independents, who are certainly not enamored of the president, might decide that the country needs a change. Obama has momentum now, but the long-term trends could support Mitt. It's probably safe to assume that we've got a fight on our hands.
Join the fun at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
How the jobs report will impact the election will take time to sort out. Meanwhile, the polling numbers have moved in the president's direction over the past month, slowing a trend towards Romney that had existed in May and early June. The big picture would seem to be working against the president because the economy is still slow, but Romney has evidently caught John Kerry disease, what with his recent vacation pictures and saying that students should get as much as education they can afford. He's going to have to stop the rich guy stuff if he wants to win.
As of today, the national race looks like this: Obama has 47.0% support and Romney 44.4% according to the latest RCP average. Obama's job approval has taken a hit, and he's underwater in most polls, but that doesn't seem to have affected his overall numbers. Yet. The honest truth is that most people, and specifically most independents, aren't paying attention to the election and won't until the early fall. Right now it's people like you and me who are fretting over every poll and uttered word that comes out of each campaign. For most other people, the election will take a back seat to finding a job, baseball, vacations, the Olympics, and most daily activities.
The state polls are still showing Obama leading the electoral college voting with leads of 221-181 (RCP), 240-191, (Pollster), 303-235 (Election Projection), 326-212 (Electoral-vote.com) and 217-206 (New York Times). North Carolina has moved to Romney's column for now and it will take a big turnout effort by Obama to repeat his 2008 victory. Ohio has moved towards the president, influenced mainly by a late June Quinnipiac poll that has Obama +9. The president is also presently holding on to Florida and Virginia, but those leads are tenuous and if the jobs numbers are very bad, watch for those states to show some movement away from Obama. I still expect the president to win Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he'll need to spend resources in each of those states this summer. Romney will force Obama to defend Wisconsin and Michigan for now, and if the polls remain close in those two states it will mean trouble for Democrats.
Protocol requires that I have a paragraph that uses hedge words to keep you interested, so here goes. Romney was having a good month until his campaign began to send some mixed messages and then he completely botched his response to the health care case. That's led to a conservative backlash from the Wall Street Journal and Rupert Murdoch. Still, for as bad a month as he's had, he's still in the race and independents, who are certainly not enamored of the president, might decide that the country needs a change. Obama has momentum now, but the long-term trends could support Mitt. It's probably safe to assume that we've got a fight on our hands.
Join the fun at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Monday, July 2, 2012
Tough Week for the Right
Remember the beginning of June? Lousy jobs numbers, Obama's muddled message and the popular assumption that the president was going to lose court cases on immigration and health care? Hope and change came quickly and it's the Republicans who are back on their heels. For now.
Not only was the Supreme Court's health care decision a deflating coda to the term that also saw most of Arizona's immigration law struck down (though the right can still claim a victory over checking papers), the news that Chief Justice Roberts actually changed his decision is proving to be too much on the rightward flank. Never mind that the court struck at the heart of the left wing's argument that the Commerce Clause allows Congress to require people to buy health care, or that the states would lose all of their Medicaid funds if they don't comply with ACA. That turncoat Roberts voted to uphold the law!
What's worse is that the Republican message machine went into overdrive, using the court's ruling to call Obama a taxer gone crazy, only to have Mitt Romney say that it's not a tax. Conservatives already suspicious about Mitt's devotion to their cause will turn even redder over that.
The polls are not being any kinder to Romney as support for the health care law rose after the decision, though a majority still do not support it. The silver lining is that the GOP base is fired up big time and that could pay dividends in November.
But Mitt is not the only Republican facing headwinds. Chris Christie called a special session of the New Jersey Legislature on Monday to get the Democrats to support his proposed tax cut, but to no avail. He even tried to make some room in the budget by line item vetoing $650 million dollars worth of social programs that serve women and children, but those darn lefties wouldn't budge.
This is but one week in a long campaign, but the GOP was banking on a health care win to bolster their summer message. It might actually work to their advantage to have the ruling go against them because their fundraising has increased and Obama is still polling below 50% in most surveys. Still, I think they saw a different scenario and Mitt's going off message will not help. More fireworks for the fourth of July.
Ain't this a great country?
There's more patriotic gore at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Not only was the Supreme Court's health care decision a deflating coda to the term that also saw most of Arizona's immigration law struck down (though the right can still claim a victory over checking papers), the news that Chief Justice Roberts actually changed his decision is proving to be too much on the rightward flank. Never mind that the court struck at the heart of the left wing's argument that the Commerce Clause allows Congress to require people to buy health care, or that the states would lose all of their Medicaid funds if they don't comply with ACA. That turncoat Roberts voted to uphold the law!
What's worse is that the Republican message machine went into overdrive, using the court's ruling to call Obama a taxer gone crazy, only to have Mitt Romney say that it's not a tax. Conservatives already suspicious about Mitt's devotion to their cause will turn even redder over that.
The polls are not being any kinder to Romney as support for the health care law rose after the decision, though a majority still do not support it. The silver lining is that the GOP base is fired up big time and that could pay dividends in November.
But Mitt is not the only Republican facing headwinds. Chris Christie called a special session of the New Jersey Legislature on Monday to get the Democrats to support his proposed tax cut, but to no avail. He even tried to make some room in the budget by line item vetoing $650 million dollars worth of social programs that serve women and children, but those darn lefties wouldn't budge.
This is but one week in a long campaign, but the GOP was banking on a health care win to bolster their summer message. It might actually work to their advantage to have the ruling go against them because their fundraising has increased and Obama is still polling below 50% in most surveys. Still, I think they saw a different scenario and Mitt's going off message will not help. More fireworks for the fourth of July.
Ain't this a great country?
There's more patriotic gore at www.facebook.com/WhereDemocracyLives and on Twitter @rigrundfest
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)