Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Post Primary Blues: The GOP's Gone South

Rick pulls off the daily double and the race pushes on. I can't say as I'm terribly surprised but the results certainly were a sharp rebuke to Romney and his claims to be a conservative. Perhaps in the fall, when he's the nominee, this will help him as moderate voters will determine this election.

The results:

                    Predict             Survey says!
Gingrich          33%                  31.3%
Romney          32%                  30.3%
Santorum        29%                  32.9%
Paul                 6%                    4.4%

And Alabama

Romney          32%                  29.0%
Gingrich          31%                  29.3%
Santorum        30%                  34.5%
Paul                 6%                    5.0%

The GOP will win these two states in the fall, so no worries there. Newt Gingrich has promised to fight on, but he's lost any claim to being the conservative alternative to Romney and can only be a spoiler. Santorum can say all he wants about being the nominee, but I don't see him winning any of the big, less conservative states still to come. If he can manage to pick off a couple (IL, NY, CA), then we'll talk. My take is that this positions Rick as a possible VP candidate if he has enough delegates and clout to force the issue in Tampa.

I'm sure that recent polls showing president Obama to be vulnerable (again and still) have emboldened conservatives not to settle on a candidate they don't want. The remaining question is whether they want to go all in for Santorum.

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