Sunday, September 25, 2011

The Christie Fallacy

The "Chris Christie for President" revival should show you how desperate the Republican Party is to find a slam-dunk candidate to run against President Obama in 2012. Politico is reporting that Chris Christie back in spotlight as Perry sags. The Newark Star-Ledger and are also carrying the story.

I can't say as I blame the GOP. Rick Perry's performance at the Republican debate last week showed that he doesn't have a sufficient grasp of the issues and is, well, not a good debater. Mitt Romney makes the Tea Partiers suspicious because his health care law in Massachusetts is actually saving lives, and Herman Cain, who won the Florida Straw Poll yesterday can't win the nomination. Why? Because he's not popular. Despite winning the Florida Straw Poll. Never mind. It's complicated.

The bottom line is that Christie will not run and further, will not win the nomination even if he does run. He's not socially conservative enough for Republican primary voters and he has little to offer in the way of foreign policy credentials. New Jersey's economy hasn't rebounded enough for him to run on jobs and property taxes remain high. But his greatest liability is that he isn't even that popular here in New Jersey as this poll shows:

Chris Christie's Approval Rating Hits New Low

The most striking number from this poll is Christie's standing with women: 54% disapproved of his performance while only 36% approved. You can't win a presidential election with those figures. And any tour of his YouTube videos will show a bullying, impatient man whose only concern is belittling his opponents as opposed to actually listening to their concerns. In a general election, that will not play well.

I don't expect Christie to suddenly get religion and run for president after so many firm denials, but ego is a wondrous thing and Chris Christie has a super-sized ego. Perhaps all the attempts at persuading him to run will succeed. If he does, though, he will immediately shoot to the top of the polls, then decline as people realize that he's not the candidate they thought he was.

1 comment:

  1. Christie might try 4 years from now, but not now. He is too fat and he knows it.